For a long time, I didn’t have a tool for cutting offers I was split-testing.

It wasn’t too bad when the offers all had similar payouts – I would just use the calculator at peakconversion and cut at a higher probability of being best to offset the inaccuracy.

However, when the offers had very different payouts, the only option I had was to generate lots of conversions, until the difference in performance was so drastic that even a turkey with half a brain missing would be able to tell without a shred of doubt which offer was the winner.

And then…edgekaos saved the day with his discovery of the win-vector calculator (thanks edgekaos!):

http://stmforum.com/forum/showthread.php?30376-Excellent-Bayesian-A-B-Testing-Tools-to-help-you-pick-offers

I’ve been using it ever since. For those of you that have been using the peakconversion calculator, you won’t even need to read this brief tutorial. For the rest of you – please read on.

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Basic Instructions

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1)Go to this tool:

https://win-vector.shinyapps.io/CampaignPlanner_v3/

(Note: If the tool happens to be down, please see this post.)

2)Click on “Evaluate Campaign”.

3)Input the stats for the 2 offers you want to compare.

“Actions” are the number of impressions on the offer – so if you’re direct-linking in pop, it would be the same as the number of “Visits” in your tracker; if you’re using a lander with pop, “Actions” will be the number of “Clicks” in your t ...

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